Wednesday, September 15, 2004

Election 2004 - Why is Kerry Losing?

Because Nobody Likes Him explains Dick Morris in the NY Post. Polls show that the majority of his "supporters" are voting for him out of dislike of President Bush rather than any intrinsic qualities they see in Kerry. And that spells trouble:
All Bush has to do is to persuade a few Kerry voters to stop disliking him, and he can get their votes. There is no residual affection for the Democrat to get in the way of their switching to the president.
Morris also doesn't see the upcoming debates helping Kerry:
The polls already have shown how Kerry's own voters break almost evenly on the issues, with half supporting the war in Iraq and half opposing it, and almost equal numbers saying we must stay the course as say we should bring the troops home.

So Kerry can't use issues to hold his own in the debates: Whatever he says will antagonize some of his base.
Finally, polls also show terrorism and security regaining traction with voters as the most important issue of the campaign. If that trend continues, Kerry will not win.