Tuesday, September 28, 2004

Kerry Giving Up on Swing Voters? Part 2

Blogs for Bush has details on the Kerry Campaign's decision not to run ads in Missouri: Kerry Concedes Missouri :

Kerry spent $5.8 million in the state, and the Democratic National Committee flushed $1.7 million before Labor Day.


You can read the full story here. Interesting but useless fact: There has only been one presidential election in the past 100 years in which Missouri didn't side with the winner - Dwight Eisenhower in 1956.

Kerry's decision to pull ads in a number of battleground states, including Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and Missouri, was first mentioned last week (and discussed here: Kerry Giving Up on Swing Voters?)

Real Clear Politic's roundup of state polls has Bush up by 6-7% in MO (11 electoral votes), up by 6-11% in AZ (10 electoral votes), up by 8% in LA (8 electoral votes) and up by 3-7% in AR (6 electoral votes): 36 electoral votes in total.

Presumably, Kerry will continue to battle in the four other battleground states where Bush leads by at least 5%: Ohio (26 electoral votes), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9) and Nevada (5) (50 electoral votes in total).

This analysis would be consistent with the current electoral college projection at Rasmussen Reports, which calls the first four for Bush and the last four as toss-ups.