Monday, October 04, 2004

A Tale of Two Polls

Two polls with very different results.

USA Today reports on an unscientific poll of U.S. military personnel that finds they support President Bush for re-election by a 4-to-1 ratio.

Meanwhile, the International Herald Tribune reports:

Eighty-seven percent of French people would back Kerry and 13 percent would vote for Bush, according to the poll by the CSA research group and published by La Croix newspaper.
The first poll was conducted by Army Times Publishing, a sister company of USA Today that publishes the weekly newspapers Army Times, Navy Times, Air Force Times and Marine Corps Times and is based on subscriber responses. One very interesting finding:

Of survey respondents, 65% of active-duty and 67% of Guard and reserve troops said that Kerry's activities after Vietnam made them less likely to vote for him...

Only 12% of active-duty troops and 16% of Guard and reserve troops said Bush's actions in the National Guard made them less likely to vote for him.

After all the commentary on both sides of the Swiftboat/TANG stories, its interesting to see what those in the military make of it all.

The USA Today story also has this unintentionally funny analysis:

Richard Kohn, a University of North Carolina history professor who has studied the political culture of the military, said the Bush campaign has been effective in creating the impression that, if elected, Kerry might "cut and run" in Iraq. "None of us who has studied Kerry's character believes that, but the Bush campaign has established in the public's mind a connection to Vietnam," Kohn said.
"None of us who has studied Kerry's character" believe he will cut and run? How about those of us who have studied what he has actually said?

Kerry's debate showing heartened the French:
Dominique Moisi, of the French Institute for International Relations, said Kerry had prevailed on a night that had breathed new life into his campaign.
Not to be done by their liberal American counterparts, and demonstrating an enviable "nuance" and understanding of World affairs, the European intelligentsia explained why they support Kerry:
"We are in a logic of 'Anything but Bush," Andre Kaspi, a professor in North American history at Paris's Sorbonne University, told La Croix. "French people know little about John Kerry, but it doesn't matter. Whoever the candidate was against George Bush, he would get the same support here."
Additional Coverage

During the debate, John Kerry had a message for the troops,...Well, it looks like most of the troops don't want Kerry's "help"
Hugh Hewitt on the two polls here and here.

The Mudville Gazette (via Hugh):
I'd guess the Swift Vets had a bit more cred with the GIs than ol Mike Moore did.
Anti-Bush sentiment is not limited to France; its also prevalent in Axis of Weasels partner Germany. Davids Medienkritik, which covers German politics, weighs in with this opinion piece from the German-government financed Deutsche Welle - Bush and the Damage Done:
When expatriate Americans cast their ballots for president on November 2, they will be better prepared than most of their countrymen back home to assess whether that foreign policy has been marked by taking calculated risks in troubled times or if it's an unmitigated disaster harming the nation's interests more than advancing them.
And how should these expats judge Bush's foreign policy? By success against al Qaeda? By whether the U.S. is safer? No, by that all-important Kerry standard, popularity abroad:
The complete lack of goodwill toward Washington is particularly worrying...

That's why John Kerry's comments that he would once again turn towards multilateral methods are encouraging.
(via Vodkapundit)